Dec 1, 2013

7 Habits of Highly Effective Investors

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1. They read. And read, and read, and read ...
If you follow Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A, BRK-B), you've probably stumbled across his witty and equally brilliant first mate, Charlie Munger. He's a legend for his insights into successful investing, thought processes, and habits. He nailed a crucial one here: “In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn't read all the time - none, zero. You'd be amazed at how much Warren reads - at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I'm a book with a couple of legs sticking out.”

2. They seek and demonstrate humility
Koch Industries may not command the recognition of its phonetic relative Coke, but it should. Koch is the second-largest private company in the United States and rakes in more than twice the revenue of the more familiar beverage-maker.

Koch Industries chief financial officer Steve Feilmeier is in charge of deploying the company's massive capital at a reasonable rate of return. When discussing what he looks for in a valuable acquisition for Koch, he said: "There is one in particular that I pay attention to when we're looking at another company, and that is humility."

Humility can be a rare virtue in an industry controlled by animal spirits, but it pays off.

3. They fail
Peter Lynch, the legendary manager of Fidelity's Magellan Fund, absolutely stomped the market over his career, averaging annual returns of 29 per cent. Here's what he had to say on picking winners: "In this business, if you're good, you're right six times out of 10. You're never going to be right nine times out of 10."

That's right. If you're king of the investing mountain, you may narrowly beat a coin toss in the long run.

4. They steal
Maybe "steal" isn't the best word for it. In investing it's called "cloning", or basically borrowing already great investment ideas and making them your own.

When it comes to cloning, no one is a bigger advocate than fund manager Mohnish Pabrai - and few are so successful at it. After managing his fund for more than 18 years and weathering two recessions, his average annual return is 25.7 per cent.

Pabrai breaks his approach down to three strategies, and one of them is, indeed, cloning. It's no coincidence that he has had this idea affirmed by someone else too: Charlie Munger.

5. They evaluate internally
A lot of investors are aware of the need to go against the grain to find success, but the judgment and evaluation of others can be a big psychological weight. It can cause doubt and insecurity in your approach.

Buffett knows this best. He was chastised for trailing the moonshot returns of the tech bubble while he stuck with boring insurance and paint manufacturers.His advice for weathering the storm? An "inner scorecard". As he said in The Snowball, a book about his life: “The big question about how people behave is whether they've got an Inner Scorecard or an Outer Scorecard. It helps if you can be satisfied with an Inner Scorecard ... If all the emphasis is on what the world's going to think about you, forgetting about how you really behave, you'll wind up with an Outer Scorecard.”

6. They practise patience
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We got a wonderful reminder of the power of patience here at Fool HQ when co-founder David Gardner's 1997 recommendation of Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) became a 100-bagger. That return – a gain of 100 times the original investment – is absolutely stunning, but even more impressive is that David was an owner the whole way through.

In his original Amazon recommendation, David wrote: "We're patient investors who buy with the idea of holding on to our latest pick for at least a year or two - if not indefinitely."
He's still holding.

7. They're decisive
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Don't confuse patience with indecision. The best investors are poised to act when the right opportunity comes across their radars.

John Paulson and Michael Burry didn't participate in The Greatest Trade Ever by sitting on their hands. When they saw a clear opportunity, they backed up the truck. For Burry, that often meant battling his own investors' anxiety. His fund Scion Capital returned nearly 500 per cent in less than eight years.
Foolish takeaway

Taking the time to cultivate good habits will yield incredible results. As one popular saying goes:

Your actions become your habits,

Your habits become your values,

Your values become your destiny.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-seven-simple-habits-of-the-best-investors-20131112-2xe2o.html#ixzz2kQj29J7f

Sep 29, 2013

How to detect A company's bankruptcy?


concept of bankruptcy

It is very common for an investor to fall into trap which is, investing in the wrong company that may face bankruptcy. This is one of the red flag that an investor must at all cost to avoid buying this kind of company in stock market. Bankrupt by definition means, a person or company is unable to pay or settle outstanding debt. In the stock market case, when a company has the characteristics that the debt is beyond control, it will face bankrupt. We have seen company like Enron and World.com (biggest financial fraud in wall street history).

There's a way to detect it even before it happens. Edward Altman has developed a formula on how to predict bankruptcy. This formula will provide 80-90% accuracy that a company will bankrupt within 2 years. this formula is called as Altman Z-Score Analysis. NYU Stern Finance Professor, Edward Altman, developed the Altman Z-score formula in 1967. In 2012, he released an updated version called the Altman Z-score Plus, that can be used to evaluate both public and private companies, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies and both U.S. and non-U.S. companies. Investors can use Altman Z-scores to help determine whether they should buy or sell a particular stock if they're concerned about the underlying company's financial strength. The Altman Z-score Plus can be used to evaluate corporate credit risk.

In Malaysia, particularly, you should have avoided companies like Transmile, Kenmark, Repco etc even though the price went outrage without reason. You do not want to invest your hard earn or retirement money into these kind of companies.

Ok, below are the screenshots of Altman Z-score formula. The input of Z-score are derived from Balance Sheet and Profit & Loss Statement. Before you use this tool, make sure the source of inputs are available. If it is kept secret, you know the drill. they want to hide from you, there must be something fishy. There's a reason why all companies in all stock exchange around the world must release the quarterly/yearly reports. 

Altman Z-score Analysis
Altman Z-score Analysis

Z-score
Z-score

If you are interested in the above excel formula, do email me.



May 26, 2013

Another Valuation: Discounted Cash Flow - AEON

In the previous posting, I have covered on intrinsic value calculation using earning projection and discount it for future projection. As mentioned before, there are many types of valuation. Today, I will write on Discounted Cash Flow. This calculation will be based on Cash Flow. What is cash flow? It tells investors that how strong a company in term of generating cash from their daily operation.



For this exercise, I will choose AEON due to its strong cash flow generation. AEON is one of the oldest retail chain store in Malaysia (formerly known as Jusco). Remember, some metric or KPI may not be fit for certain sector. AEON do not need to spend its cash except for expanding new branches as well refurbish existing branch. As for daily operation, as long as customers are coming to the store and buy things, it will still continue to generate cash on daily basis.

Also worth to highlight the ability of AEON to sustain free cash flow. Meaning, on top of generating cash flow from operation, after deducting capital expenditure, AEON still manage to spare some cash.
What are other business characteristics that AEON possess besides Strong Cash Flow? This is what you should be looking for:
  1. Sustainable and consistent ROE
  2. Strong, consistent and sustainable Cash 
  3. Strong brand and customer loyalty
  4. Good and recognize management
If you missed out AEON, you might want to look another similar strong cash companies like AEON. May be I will discuss later for Pos Malaysia.

AEON Free Cash Flow
AEON Free Cash Flow

AEON Dividend History
AEON Dividend History

Based on the historical dividend payout, AEON has the sustainability of cash to pay dividend to shareholders at least 10 consecutive years.

AEON 10 Years Operating Cash Flow
AEON 10 Years Operating Cash Flow

AEON Cash Flow Statement 31 Dec 2012
AEON Cash Flow Statement 31 Dec 2012

AEON Intrinsic Value Using Discounted Cash Flow
AEON Intrinsic Value Using Discounted Cash Flow

Based on the above valuation, it is still undervalued by 21%. Based on margin of safety principle, this may not be a good entry. You may want to enter at 50% MOS. It depends on your appetite for safety net. But it is just a guidelines, not the exact science. If you decided to make a position, be prepared to average down your position. 

AEON annual report can be found the following link: http://www.jusco.com.my/annual.html

DisclaimerThe above simulation is intended for discussion. Not intended for buy or sell call. Please consult certified financial adviser for your investment decision.